Sunspot Rate and Market Reaction
Sunspot numbers recorded from SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
Many years Scientists recorded sunspot activity find out a cycle of ~11.2 years but cannot have a solid explanation why sun polarity changes in this cycle of time. I of course cannot do better than them but recently find an interesting study related to:
Every 44.7714730 years (in 4 sunspot cycle Venus-Jupiter, Jupiter-Earth and Venus Earth conjuncted 69, 41 and 28 times) The movement of these three planets coherent with sunspot activity.
Credit to Clyde.J. Bollinger – Acedemcy of science for 1952
Every 44.7714730 years has four maximum period of sunspot therefore we can divided 4 evenly, ideally(as three planets move in difference speed), nearly 90 degree movment of aspects (0, 90, 180, 270)would produce a maximum sunpot cycle.
Further, 45 degree, half of 90 degree movement would produce the opposite cycle,the low sunspot rate period.
Ongoing of Clyde.J. Bollinger chart, the maximum sunspot activity recently are:
Jan 2014 : Conjunction of Jupiter Earth Venus, the peak of No.24 sunspot cycle(maximum Sunspot rate)
March 2025：Square aspect of Jupiter to Earth Venus (Earth conjunct Venus) should be the peak of No.25 sunspot cycle
In previous report I mentioned the weak sunspot is coherence to market drop, March 2020 covid-19 breakout, 2008-2009 Lehman event, 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis, 1987 Black Monday…and 1932 The Great depression was the fiercest drop in record, at the time when W.D. Gann present.
It is trick to find the exactly highest or lowest period of sunspot by matching these three planets as they are spinning at different speed forming various aspect to others. This phenomenon may account for double peak or a longer/delayed of low area. Here is the nearest weak sunspot period:
April 1997 (Jupiter ~120/60 to Venus Earth opposite);Jan 1998 (Jupiter 144 to Venus Earth conjunction)
May-June 2008; March 2009 (Jupiter 135 with Venus Earth conjunct)
August 2019; May 2020 (Jupiter 45 with Venus Earth conjunct),
The next will be in October 2030(Jupiter 135/45 to Venus Earth opposite); August 2031(Jupiter 45 with Venus Earth Conjunct).
The effect of Covid-19 break out and Lehman events can be easily referred to DJI and S&P500, here I highlight the Asian Financial Crisis, to be fair we should find an Asian representative:
Asian Financial Crisis ; Heng Seng Index in 1997 to 1998, 53% drop
Every Black Swan event seems to be a sudden and unexpected news but usually the financial environment behind is already corrupted and turning weak before this black swan occur. And when most people losing their hope depressed in their painful loss, a new positive cycle has already begun silently.
I suspect the sunspot cycle is corelating to financial positive and negative movement, but the total picture of financial goodwill or dropdown of the whole world is not just reflected in indexes and points.
If Jupiter, Earth and Venus aspect corelating the cycle of sunspot activity, and sunspot rate is somehow coherence to “black swan event” causing crisis drop. Lucky we may study these three planets movement to trace this black swan. However, three combinations of planets with different kind of aspects are far enough cases to study...
As least, we are move to 2025 the sunspot maximum time. It may not reflect to DJI, S&P500 or others prominent Index but human or business activities should be recovering. Specially Saturn square Uranus, the aspect usually react “bad” to U.S. activities is passing away. If you are running business it is a good time for business growth and expansion of share or influence in related markets. (when saying recovering usually ,in before, we will see a series of painful process such as a large amount lay off of human power, shut down of factories and companies, write out of debt/increasing of debt…)
After a recovery and growth or we can say near the peak of growth, when people think they can take a rest, peace, enjoying their work done and profit, thinking a bright future is in front of us, environment often is already corrupted and turning down. What waiting us is a sudden event ignite the bomb.
I assume late 2030 to 2031 will have a financial crisis again.
Bitcoin Saturn 45 degree movement
Saturn 45 degree movement from the first trade day - the first crypto exchanger GOX listed bitcoin
In the time I am writing people are celebrating Bitcoin its 14th birthday from its Genesis Block mined on 3 Jan 2009. Some of us may also consider another important day should be celebrated, the first trade date that first exchanger listed its for public trade, 18 July 2010. It is really a good time to celebrate, as start from this date, bitcoin is no longer owned by miners or developers. Bitcoin can be owned by everyone. The value of Bitcoin, in literally, from no market, from zero value, to US$0.05 open price on 18 July 2017, increased by unlimited times in mathematical view.
The longer the time bitcoin alive in our world, the more data we get for analysis it. During my study I am amazed by the movement of Saturn in an occasional test. Every 45 degree movement, from the first day of Bitcoin listed, it make a serious top.
29 Nov 2013 high US$1241.92 Saturn moved 47 degree (18 days after exactly 45 degree)
17 Dec 2017 high US$19587.7 Saturn moved 90 degree (1 days after exactly 90 degree)
14 Apr 2021 high US$64830.5 Saturn moved 133 degree(Saturn stationary, Altcoin top 7 days before 133.5 degree the farthest point Saturn can reach)
And also if we count the first trade day is a high before that bitcoin has zero value for public:
17 July 2010 high US$0.09 Bitcoin become public kick off the zero to infinity.(0 degree )
Therefore, we have 4 pervious high records and all coherence to 45 degree movement of Saturn. The next 45 degree is 180 in May 2025.
To review the subjection of error, 29 Nov 2013, the 45 degree movement contributed around 1170 calendar day. The error of percentage by day count is 18/1171 days= 1.53%, which is quite astonished accurate. Needless to say 17 Dec 2017 is an exactly 90 degree day. But how about the 135 degree and the real top of the top in term of price is US$68501 on 10 Nov 2021? It break our assumption that 135 degree is a top.
It is always a mystery why double or triple top/low occur in cycle analysis. Markets often produce ambiguous shape which make cycle analysis hard to read. One of the explanation is, here I try to assume, planet Saturn is retrograding and stationary around the true top of May 2021. Take ETH and other major crypto as reference, their top are on 12 May 2021, not on April 2021. Saturn has moved 133 degree distance in Apr 2021 and it need to retrograde. It lost its momentum. At mid of May Saturn become totally stationery without momentum in Geocentric view, 133.5 degree is already the farthest degree Saturn can go. To be picky for accuracy, we take the farthest 133.5 degree as a target day 19 May 2021. Top occured 7 days before by major crypto currencies on 12 May. The total days of movement from 90 degree to 133.5 degree is 1249 days.(0.56% error).
By the way, if you carefully look into the chart above, 133 degree and 135 degree the exact date on 23 Apr 2021, 21 Jun 2021, and 24 Jan 2022. They are the essential date of a low, a turning point.
But the real top on 2021 is obviously 10 Nov 2021. Why not in Apr- May 2021? Here another data I feel helpful to do cycle analysis, the google trend of search engine data:
Keyword “Bitcoin” searching trend in google, data from Google Trend
This data is generated by Google Trend represented the word BITCOIN be searched around whole worldwide. The time Dec 2017 is the most hottest time people searched bitcoin on internet, the second high is May 2021, interesting not Nov 2021.
This trend is reflecting, the sentiment, the hot feeling, or in term of the energy, how the public keen on cryptocurrency. In the view of hot period, Dec 2017 of course the most addicted time people adhering bitcoin, and the second May 2021, however not the Nov 2021. When I saw this trend on Oct and Nov 2021 was not strong as May 2021 but price was higher than May, I had a bad feeling of a real drop would be following us…
May 2025 would be the next 180 degree. In conclude, it would be a real top. However, Saturn is the same situation going retrograding period around the 180 degree, therefore making three exact 180 degree days, which is May 2025, Sept 2025 and Feb 2026.
Experts predict that the next Bitcoin halving event will take place around March 18, 2024. The Bitcoin halving event in historically proved that price will rise for at least more than one year then peak reach. Stay alert on around mid of 2025. But which month is really the top? I am trying my best to figure out…
Bitcoin halving will take place around March 18, 2024, I assume as if the previous situation one year or more price rising before touch a new peak.